Cirium, an aviation analytics firm, reports that 19 of the world’s 20 largest airlines largest airlines will reduce capacity in the coming months.
According to its analysis, planned global capacity for May has dropped by three percentage points since early March. Cirium also revised its initial forecast of 4%–6% growth this year, saying growth could fall by up to 3% under certain scenarios.
The conflict has disrupted supply chains and trapped oil in storage facilities throughout the Middle East. 
Brent crude oil prices surged past $100 per barrel in early March before falling below that level when ceasefire talks began this month.
Jet fuel prices have risen even faster, doubling to nearly $200 per barrel. As the war continues, countries that do not produce or have limited jet fuel supplies may find it harder to secure fuel.
On April 16, Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told the Associated Press, “In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so of jet fuel left.”
Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, said the following day that “by the end of May, we could start to see some cancellations in Europe due to a lack of jet fuel.”
“This is already happening in parts of Asia,” he added.
The Biggest Airlines Affected by Jet Fuel
Ryanair, Europe’s largest airline, has said it is considering route reductions.
During an interview with Sky News, CEO Michael O’Leary said the company’s jet fuel supply could come under pressure if the war continues.
“We don’t expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we may face supply disruptions in Europe in May and June,” he said.
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On April 17, KLM announced it was canceling 80 return flights from its main base, Schiphol Airport in Amsterdam.
The airline said those routes were “no longer financially viable to operate” because of rising kerosene prices.
Lufthansa Group announced in a press release on April 21 that it will cut about 20,000 short-haul flights through October as it removes unprofitable routes and responds to rising fuel costs. Lufthansa expects the move to save more than 40,000 metric tonnes of jet fuel.
According to the press release, the airline will implement initial adjustments by May and expects to maintain sufficient fuel supply in the coming weeks.
Edelweiss Air of Switzerland also announced it was canceling flights to the United States due to low demand and rising fuel prices. It will no longer fly to Denver or Seattle and will reduce flights to Las Vegas.
Vietnam Airlines announced it will suspend seven domestic flight routes beginning April 1, according to a local state-run newspaper.
The outlet added that Vietnam Airlines plans to reduce flight volume by 10% to 20% per month over the next fiscal quarter if jet fuel prices rise to between $160 and $200 per barrel.
Air New Zealand announced it will cut about 5% of its flights, or roughly 1,100 flights, beginning in May.
“We’re focused on consolidating flights during off-peak flying hours, for example, or where there is an alternative that we can use to re-accommodate customers,” CEO Nikhil Ravishankar told 1News in March.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby said in a March memo to employees that the company will reduce flights over the next two quarters.
“In the short term, that means tactically reducing flying that is temporarily unprofitable due to high oil prices,” Kirby said.
The airline plans to cancel some off-peak flights and red-eyes.
Air Canada also announced that certain routes will be suspended beginning in late May due to rising jet fuel costs.
“Jet fuel prices have doubled since the start of the Iran conflict, affecting some low-profitability routes and flights that are no longer economically feasible,” the company said.
“Schedule adjustments, including some frequency reductions, are being implemented in response.”
The suspensions will affect certain Canadian domestic, transborder, and international flights.
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